Finance
Trading Drawdown Simulator
The single most useful tool for any trader. Plug in your win rate, reward-to-risk ratio and risk per trade, then run hundreds of randomized 'trade walks'. See the expected value per trade, the equity curve envelope, the typical and worst-case drawdowns, and the probability of blowing up.
2 = win 2× the loss
Pros usually risk 0.5–2% per trade
When you'd quit / blow up
Strategy expectancy
This setup is positive-expectancy. Profits are mathematically expected over many trades — but only if you survive the drawdowns.
Risk of ruin
0.0%
hitting -30%
Typical max DD
7.5%
Worst-case max DD
12.3%
95th percentile
Pessimistic (5th)
₹1,85,335
Median ending
₹2,65,177
Optimistic (95th)
₹3,90,914
Try increasing risk per trade — the median goes up, but ruin probability spikes alarmingly. This is the volatility tax that kills aggressive traders.
Peak: ₹3,90,914
Methodology
How we calculate this
E = win% × RR − loss% × 1
From the blog
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Frequently asked
- What is 'expectancy in R'?
- R is your risk per trade. Expectancy = (win rate × reward-multiple) − (loss rate × 1). +0.5R means each trade is worth half a unit of risk on average.
- Why does my risk of ruin spike when I increase risk per trade?
- Drawdowns scale with risk per trade. Pros risk 0.5–2% per trade for exactly this reason — they want to survive long losing streaks that are statistically inevitable.
Try Risk Simulator next →
Risk Simulator